Top 10 Trends from Expo West 2024

Top 10 Trends from Expo West 2024

Top 10 Trends from Expo West 2024

Late last week, along with roughly 70,000 other consumer goods fanatics, Seurat descended on the city of Anaheim, CA for the Super Bowl of CPG – Expo West. Sensible shoes were out in full force, as were more than 3,300 exhibitors ranging from functional cookie dough to probiotic baby wipes, Vietnamese coffee and plant-based everything.

Expo is always an inspiring (though exhausting) experience, and the buzz was electrifying. And yet, not all trends are poised to emerge from the Erewhon / DTC “bubble” and mainstream at the same rate (we’re looking at you, regeneratively farmed kombucha gummies). It would be impossible to pay tribute to all the fearless founders and hip challenger brands we met, so we’ve settled for a top 10. Without further ado, we present our top Expo trends, qualitatively organized from ‘still emerging’ to ‘ready to scale.’

#10 Cognitive Craze

If the number of “brain-boosting” products on display is any indication, cognitive function is next up in the health industry’s obsession with self-improvement. A slew of brands from supplements to snacks & beverages are promising “brain power on demand” through focus-enhancing nootropics – perhaps no surprise as 1 in 3 consumers look for ways to augment cognition. These products remain niche for now due to low distribution and premium price point. But given consumers’ inclination to start the day at their best, there’s certainly potential for greater adoption.

#9 Eggcellent Innovation

Eggs were a bifurcating trend this year. At one extreme, brands were leaning into eggs as the OG natural, protein-dense superfood and proliferating into different form factors like wraps and chips – ostensibly improving the incumbent’s nutritionals. On the other extreme, several brands were leaning out, hatching plant-based alternatives as close as possible to the real thing. Likely explanations here range from the rise of plant-based to animal welfare, food sensitivity concerns and the TikTokers famous #eggick, a sudden (viral at 4.3MM views) repulsion to eggs. The outpouring of brands offering ick-free eggs made from peas, lentils, chickpeas & the likes is certainly no yolk, but the scalability of these substitutes remains to be seen.

#8 Reign of Regenerative

While only ~1 in 10 consumers are aware of regenerative agriculture, 60% of those who know it are extremely interested – suggesting one of the highest rates of search-to-purchase intent. Regenerative is the new wave of BFY, taking organic even further to be not just better for our planet, but truly restorative. With traditional meat coming back into fashion, consumers are increasingly seeking better, more socially acceptable ways to consume the products they love. (And thanks to kernza, you can finally help sequester carbon and improve the quality of our air, soil and water…all by drinking beer!)

#7 Happy Hormones

The last few years have seen a major shift in the discourse around women’s health: conversations around menstruation and sexual wellness have gone from cultural stigma to empowerment and pride. Based on what we saw at Expo, menopause and more general hormonal health support is the next wave in this revolution. Google searches for “Menopause,” “PCOS” and “hormonal acne” have nearly doubled in the past five years – perhaps no surprise as 80% of women in the US struggle with symptoms related to hormonal imbalances. Women’s History Month was the perfect backdrop for a host of emerging brands aiming to solve very real pain points in the name of womanhood.

#6 Taste of Beauty

‘You are what you eat,’ as the saying goes. And now, apparently, what you put in your body might replace what you put on it to achieve a healthy, balanced glow. Social media is rife with hacks to consume products in place of topical solutions to benefit one’s complexion. (#skindiet has 2.2M hits on TikTok as of this writing.) There’s significant upside if brands can drive daily consumption by positioning these consumables as another step in the ever-growing list of beauty & self-care routines.

#5 From K-Pop to K Food

During lockdown, consumers had extra time to explore new hobbies. Many elevated their baking skills with sourdough starter sets, while others invested in learning recipes from cuisines & cultures outside their own. The latter, coupled with a universal desire to travel, unlock unique experiences & connect with new cultures, has given rise to a host of ethnic brands aiming to make global flavors more accessible to the average home chef. This year Korean products especially appeared in the limelight, from umami snacks to gochujang condiments. Google searches for “H mart” have doubled since pre-lockdown, and we’re bullish on the continued emergence of accessible, globally inspired products – Korean and beyond.

#4 Low Stress, No Mess Meals

Until recently, the ready-to-heat meal solution set in mainstream grocery looked a lot like it did 20 years ago. But increasing expectations when it comes to quality, convenience & taste has given rise to a new wave of premium, health-forward solutions aimed at the roughly 2/3 of Americans who no longer regularly cook at home. As meal kit companies struggle, these products are poised to enter more kitchens, and with greater frequency. Price points remains an important hurdle to clear, but these low-stress, no-mess meals represent an attractive space with significant unrealized potential.

#3 Protein Beyond the Plate

The ubiquity of protein isn’t new to Expo, but the trend appears to have accelerated. Recent years have seen more consumers reducing animal protein consumption, spurring some to turn to beverages and salty snacks to supplement. Americans also fundamentally believe they’re protein-deficient, further fueled by the rise of GLP-1 drugs as these medications require a more protein-rich diet to make up for the impact on bone density and muscle mass. Protein isn’t going away anytime soon – and it’s likely to continue growing in meal-adjacent spaces across the consumable landscape.

#2 Energy Evolution

The energy drink category has a decades-old reputation as being artificial and loaded with sugar. Major brands like Celsius & Highball have changed the narrative, inviting new consumers into the space with cleaner labels & fewer ingredients. Emerging brands are taking this one step further, with “purely natural energy” claims, ingredients that are naturally high in caffeine and even alternative energy sources, from ginseng to green coffee beans. Americans’ thirst for mental & physical energy is effectively insatiable, and yet penetration of energy drinks is largely stagnant. That may be about to change as these brands continue to redefine expectations and products – complete with functional benefits from improved focus to elevated mood.

#1 Sensible Soda

“Healthy soda” is clearly having a moment. Poppi’s splashy Super Bowl commercial exposed millions of mainstream consumers to the idea of replacing their traditional soft drink with a healthier alternative. Manufacturers are taking notice, with more than 25+ better-for-you brands brands entering on the heels of Poppi and Olipop. Even the kombucha brands we met at Expo were changing their strategy and jumping on the bandwagon.Taste remains paramount, but these brands are also touting benefits like gut health and immunity. Things are about to get interesting!

Did you see something else we missed? Didn’t get to Expo and want the full scoop? Hit us up! As always, we welcome conversation. Reach out at info@seuratgroup.com.
Building a Repeatable Growth Model

Building a Repeatable Growth Model

Building a Repeatable Growth Model

The Repeatable Growth Model

A fundamental need for brands is articulating what they stand for that uniquely delights consumers and differentiates from competitors. As consumer behaviors and values evolve, and competition is constantly in flux, we believe it is important to revisit this foundation often. Standing apart means that brands must be instantly recognizable and top-of-mind with consumers, which is a challenge as consumers make less exploratory and more hurried trips through stores and commerce sites. To maximize the impact of potential connect points with consumers, brands must have a deep understanding and clear articulation of their unique right to win.

At the Seurat Group, we’ve found that brands can increase mental availability and unlock growth by building a Repeatable Growth Model – a framework that captures each brand’s core competencies and codifies how the brand captures, retains, and ultimately delights its consumers. Through the lens of the Repeatable Growth Model, brands can articulate their unique “edge” and develop strategies that improve trial, loyalty and ultimately organic brand advocacy.

Below, we lay out the components of the Repeatable Growth Model.

How It Works

A Repeatable Growth Model is a brand’s unique perpetual motion machine. A successful model leverages deep insight to identify key behavioral triggers and associated activation to draw consumers in, drive repeat purchase, and ultimately gain loyalty.

Example: Fairlife ultra-filtered milk

 

Trial by Design

Consumers notice the brand on shelf for its eye-catching product design in a sea of traditional milk gallons.

Loyalty by Nutrition

After trying the product, consumers are drawn to incorporate it into their daily routine for its elevated nutrition, which features higher protein and lower sugar than regular milk.

Advocacy by Uncompromising Taste

Finally, loyal consumers become authentic ambassadors for the brand, advocating it to friends and family because it offers the great taste of regular milk in a lactose-free form that removes the digestive pitfalls of dairy.

Expansion

Fairlife replicated this formula by expanding into coffee creamer and ice cream, two categories with opportunity to maintain the positive taste and texture of traditional dairy while improving on the nutrition and digestive ease of existing options.

How to Develop and Leverage the Model for Growth

Stay close to your consumer. Consumer anthropology and deep discovery are invaluable tools for a brand to reveal and articulate its “secret sauce” among consumers. It is helpful to validate the impact through additional quantitative research.

Map today and tomorrow. A model based on current consumer experiences with your brand can lay out where the brand wins today and provide opportunities to amplify what’s working, but it is also critical to recognize emerging areas your brand needs to win tomorrow. Identify and conduct research among your leading-edge consumers to identify how your brand’s model should evolve to meet tomorrow’s needs.

Understand what “breaks” the model. Equally valuable to understanding the drivers of trial and loyalty is understanding the opposite: what discourages your target consumer from trying or returning to your brand? Listening to lapsed or occasional users can identify opportunities to strengthen the model, building on strengths or addressing weaknesses to convert these consumers into loyalists.

Conclusion

Brands that have charted their Repeatable Growth Model win because they have a litmus test for their consumer strategies going forward, allowing them to communicate and innovate against the key differentiating elements of their offer. We welcome a discussion about what your brand’s Repeatable Growth Model could be!

To discuss any of these ideas further, please contact us at info@seuratgroup.com.

Connecting the Dots Webinar Recording: The Secret to Successful Innovation

Connecting the Dots Webinar Recording: The Secret to Successful Innovation

Connecting the Dots Webinar Recording: The Secret to Successful Innovation

Why does most innovation fail? More important, what makes the tiny minority succeed? Seurat Group Managing Partner Jill Brant and Principal Adam Gold held a virtual discussion to discuss insider tips behind the CPG industry’s most successful new products.

View a recording of the conversation below.

7 Habits of Highly Effective Innovators

7 Habits of Highly Effective Innovators

7 Habits of Highly Effective Innovators

Lately it seems innovation has earned its own 24-hour news cycle.

Corporate earnings reports and mission statements are littered with the term, and it’s perpetually the topic of books, newsletters, blogs, LinkedIn articles, moderated panels and industry conferences. A Google search for CPG innovation returned more than 5.7 million results. And yet, despite the vast amounts of time spent researching, analyzing, and pontificating about innovation, the CPG industry – big CPG, in particular – has a woefully poor track record.

Harvard Business School professor Clay Christensen famously estimated that of the more than 30,000 new products introduced every year, 95% of them fail1. A large study of the packaged food industry found that only 25% of new products were still around four years after launch2. By some estimates, as much as $35 billion is spent annually on failed innovation.

What gives?

Plenty of industry veterans have conducted post-mortems on CPG innovation, and most cite some combination of risk aversion, unrealistic goal setting, slow product development cycles, insufficient sales & marketing support, and general bureaucracy. We could add to the list – missing a human insight, over-relying on market intelligence, failing to plan for commercial viability – but in the end it’s easier to point the finger than articulate how to innovate successfully. Over the years Seurat Group has benchmarked hundreds of brands, from emerging challengers to billion-dollar blockbusters. We recently conducted an analysis to identify why certain innovation succeeds and identified seven habits of highly effective innovators.

For many CPG brands, innovation is a foregone conclusion – a templated box on the annual plan – rather than a deliberate strategic choice. But the most successful innovators are those who take a much more purposeful approach. That means starting by clarifying the role of innovation within the company. (Are you trying to increase household penetration? Participate in more “jobs”?) A sharp innovation strategy also articulates a clear financial goal. (Should innovation drive 5% of growth or 50%?) Answers to these questions are of critical importance in driving organizational alignment and decision-making.

Drinks on a shelf

A ready-to-drink nutrition manufacturer had a hero SKU accounting for roughly 90% of sales. The team saw that the core product was driving household penetration but servicing a very limited range of consumption occasions. Thus, their innovation strategy became about driving buy rate and extending to new jobs. A financial goal of $100MM in incremental sales within three years ensured the team stayed focused on big ideas and had clear metrics to evaluate success.

In many cases, innovation is regrettably fueled by capability rather than insight. Product designers and
engineers, eager to pounce on the latest advancements, are all too willing to use some new technology, process and/or capability to justify innovation – often with little regard for the end user. Consider the curved panel TV, debuted with great fanfare in 2013. Samsung, Sony and LG were eager to get in the game, excited by what promised to be a revolution in the viewing experience – only to have it widely panned as a gimmick. Why? Curved panel innovation stemmed from access to a new technology, not user research; the claims about a more immersive experience were simply to post-rationalize and justify an exorbitant price premium. As one ex-Samsung employee put it, “they were borne out of a capability, not a user need.” Similar examples abound in CPG, from product formulations to packaging technology and other novel advancements.

In addition to being strong general managers, the best innovators are experts in consumer behavior. They are not only dialed into the needs of consumers, but also actively evaluating how those needs are evolving to ensure innovation designs for the future, not the past 52 weeks.

When conducting research with leading-indicator consumers, belVita found consumers were “hacking” breakfast foods to feel more energized and sated without being weighed down. The insight drove Modelez to formulate its breakfast biscuits with “slow-release carbs,” communicating “4 hours of nutritious steady energy” in its marketing. belVita continues to find impressive, consistent growth in an otherwise struggling category as the brand blows by annual sales of over $350MM3.

Most new products wind up as line extensions or variants that are different but not necessarily better. By contrast, the most successful innovators recognize the importance of elevating the value equation – in other words, identifying areas where existing products can be improved. While that can occur in the denominator (i.e., providing the same benefit at a lower cost), more often it manifests in the numerator, either through (1) solving pain points or (2) creating delight opportunities. To do this well, innovators identify a clear foil: an incumbent whose value proposition they can meaningfully disrupt and from whom they can source volume.

In 2019, Smucker’s Uncrustables was humming along, a nearly $300MM business4 built on taking the effort out of no-crust PB&J sandwiches for kid lunchboxes and other on-the-go occasions. In 2020, along came Chubby Organics, directly attacking Uncrustables with its nut butter & superfood sandwiches marketed this way: “Chubby Organics offers the same indulgent sandwich experience as the leading PB&J brand, but we swapped out the JUNK ingredients so you can eat our good-for-you sandwiches without the guilt5.” With ingredients like chia seeds, Medjool dates and camu camu, Superfood Sandwiches may not be for everyone – but for those who prioritize a cleaner panel, they represent a significant improvement in the value equation – and enable Chubby to command a ~7x price premium6.

Plenty of brands do the hard work of mining legitimate consumer insights and identifying attractive profit
pools – only to fall down in understanding their right to win. Enticed by the next “bright shiny object,” brand leaders are quick to extend into new spaces without regard for where they can have a unique advantage. Burt’s Bees did a commendable job building equity in natural skin care – and then in 2016, overextended with a fumbled launch into pea protein powder. As one former Clorox leader reflected, “We had built this great equity in natural ingredients, but consumers knew us for skin care, not protein.”

The best innovators scrutinize why consumers choose their brand over others, and where the brand over-delivers relative to alternatives. Thinking this way allows for purposeful exploration of innovation spaces that build upon a brand’s unique right to win.

Kodiak cakes, best known for its protein-packed flapjack and waffle mix, has nearly doubled sales every year and is on its way to being a $100MM+ brand7. By building empathy for its most loyal users, Kodiak discovered its right to win wasn’t protein – a major packaging call-out and often-cited purchase driver – but rather convenient, nutrient-dense breakfast. Thinking that way enabled the team to explore a host of product categories and executions, and ultimately inspired the launch of toaster-ready waffles and microwaveable flapjack cups – both of which improve on the convenience and portability of the signature mix8.

Several companies have built successful businesses helping manufacturers evaluate new product concepts and gauge “launch readiness.” Unfortunately, in addition to being extremely expensive, these testing methods are limited in that they (1) tend to place outsized weight in stated interest and purchase intent (how many respondents say they are ‘interested’ and/or would ‘probably buy’); (2) lean heavily on historical benchmarks, which can be notoriously inaccurate for new-to-world products; and (3) are highly sensitive to manufacturer-provided inputs (e.g., projected % ACV). By contrast, great innovators take a more holistic – and flexible – approach to evaluating innovation.

A global beverage manufacturer was exploring ways to drive category penetration through innovation across its portfolio of brands. After using ethnographies to identify consumer pain points and develop hypothesized innovation platforms, the company fielded a quant study to validate and prioritize opportunities. In addition to asking about purchase intent, the study probed on brand fit, expected purchase frequency, projected incrementality and willingness to pay a premium over existing products. The resulting data, when layered with category analytics, enabled the team to scorecard each platform holistically and prioritize innovation spaces. To further refine the propositions, the manufacturer tested different versions of Facebook ads to gauge consumer responses to packaging design and pricing – all before R&D began the product development process.

Many CPG companies struggle when it comes to commercializing innovation, in part due to what is
frequently a linear, sequential process. In a typical situation, a marketing and/or insights lead partners with an outside agency to commission a study. Results are then presented to marketing, which spins a story and briefs a product development team, which then enlists supply chain, finance, legal and other stakeholders to make the product a reality. At that point, some poor soul is sent off to pitch the idea to sales and obtain a volume forecast. This process leads to inefficiencies and encourages a “CYA” mentality. By contrast, the most successful innovators recognize it takes a village to raise a new product and wire for success by engaging cross-functional stakeholders early and often – and providing ample opportunities for feedback and iteration.

A large dairy manufacturer set out to build a long-term innovation pipeline with the goal of reigniting interest in a declining category. Notably, the project was managed by a cross-functional team with representation from insights, sales, marketing, R&D, finance, supply chain and project management. When it came time to prioritize concepts, there was no need to “get sales on board” or “ask supply chain if they could actually produce it.” Leaders from each department had been heavily involved throughout, making commercialization smoother and integrating seamlessly into the annual planning process.

Another common innovation pitfall is relying too much on existing models and capabilities. Big CPG companies spend countless years and dollars building scale and efficiency, ultimately creating perverse incentives to blindly leverage those efficiencies when new models are needed. Consider Campbell’s Sauces, a modern take on the category General Mills pioneered with Hamburger Helper in the 1970s. While the insight territory is rich – consumers want convenient solutions that work with existing tools (skillets, slow cookers) to make dinner easier – Campbell’s lacked the conviction to challenge its go-to-market model, leaving retailers to decide where to shelve the products. Today the bulk of the brand’s website is dedicated to explaining to consumers where to find the items at every major retailer: Microwaveable Meals at Acme, Marinades & Sauces at Giant Eagle, etc.9

By contrast, the sharpest innovators flex the go-to-market model to best suit consumer and customer needs. Think of it as capital ‘I’ vs. little ‘i’ innovation. Examples include:

Licensing: Leading household product licensers capture upwards of 5% of their revenue from licensing and partnership strategies

Direct to Consumer: Blueland, the makers of environmentally sustainable cleaning products, have leveraged a DTC model to enter five household categories within the first 15 months of selling

Community Selling: Leading beauty & personal care brands use consultants and the 1:1 interaction of community selling to recognize virtually overnight success with new products – in stark contrast to the slow and steady model of building awareness and trial in traditional retail channels

Influencer channels: An increasing number of brands are curating breakthrough innovation in authentic channels where target consumers can more easily discover it. Oatly launched first in Intelligentsia coffee, building credibility with baristas and creating awareness among coffee enthusiasts. Similarly, for years RXBAR sold exclusively through CrossFit gyms, rapidly iterating on the product and packaging before finally entering Natural Grocery.

Ready to rethink your approach to strategic innovation? Contact us as info@seuratgroup.com.