Challenger Brand Study 2018: The Magic of the Moat

Challenger Brand Study 2018: The Magic of the Moat

Challenger Brand Study 2018: The Magic of the Moat

Challenger Brand Study 2018: The Magic of the Moat

The competitive landscape for challenger brands has rapidly intensified.

Not so long ago, the challenger brand story most closely resembled that of David and Goliath. New brands entered mature, sleepy categories and used their guile and resourcefulness to disrupt the leaders. Their agility, transparency and consumer intuition allowed them to unlock the lion’s share of growth across categories. Back then, challenger brands had only to concern themselves with standing out against the large category incumbents.

Today’s landscape looks different. Lower barriers to entry, greater access to production, distribution and growth capital, and more

efficient ways to reach and build relationships with consumers have led to greater proliferation of brands and products in attractive spaces. The result is that challenger brands must now stand out not only against large category leaders, but also against a growing number of other challengers who have recognized the potential to disrupt. As this dynamic plays out across nearly every ‘hot’ category today – think cold brew coffee, kombucha and natural pet food, to name a few – challengers have recognized the need to further insulate themselves from competition.

What this means for challenger brands:

Enter the concept of the “moat” – an intentional competitive edge that raises barriers to competition, ideally developed early on in a company’s or brand’s life cycle. Successful challenger brands now need to start building their competitive “moats” early. When the Seurat Group identifies promising challenger brands, we tend to prioritize those that have deliberately dug their moats early in the development of their business model. An example of this is Q Mixers,

a premium natural mixer brand based in Brooklyn, NY. By aligning with the nation’s largest distributor in the majority of US states, they effectively established a “protected” route to market, enabling them to introduce the brand to Millennial consumers on and off premise, challenging flat-footed incumbents like Canada Dry and Schweppes and insulating against premium upstarts in the local/artisanal mixers space.

What this means for this year’s Challenger Brand Study:

This year we highlight 10 challenger brands that are not only disrupting existing categories but also using a “moat” to establish a clear edge for growth. These moats are a little different from the ways established brands have traditionally created competitive advantage. (Spoiler: it’s not about

defending shelf space, production and distribution scale, or paying for share of voice anymore). These days challenger brands are employing a host of moat-building techniques, from exclusive channels to social reach and proprietary technology.

TOP 10 CHALLENGER BRANDS 2018
Brand
Background and Moat
Bright Farms

Produce

Bright Farms is changing our food system by producing healthier and more sustainable local produce. The company finances, builds and operates hydroponic greenhouses near retail distribution partners, allowing the stores to reliably carry locally-grown, high-quality packaged vegetables.

The greenhouses are financed by long-term retailer agreements, effectively barring competitors from entry once Bright Farms gains distribution. Having already established successful partnerships with major retailers like Kroger, Ahold, Albertsons and Walmart, and posted 890% growth over the past 3 years, the brand is poised for continued expansion in the coming years.

Tony’s Chocolonely

Chocolate

Tony’s Chocolonely, a Dutch-based chocolate company that entered the U.S. in 2017, is challenging the industry to produce chocolate made totally without any unjust labor practices. By trading directly with farmers, paying above fair-trade rates and helping farmers grow profitable, long-term businesses, Tony’s is showing big players and consumers alike that it’s possible to produce affordable chocolate that meets a higher standard.

By changing the conversation around chocolate production and setting the new bar for quality, Tony’s has carved out a niche as a brand uniquely positioned to deliver delicious chocolate that consumers can feel good about eating. The brand has maintained a 50% annual growth rate since 2005.

New Wave Foods

Plant-Based Seafood

New Wave Foods co-founders Dominique Barres and Michelle Wolf knew there had to be a better way to give consumers the seafood they want while protecting the ocean’s finite resources. In 2015 they developed their first product: algae-based “shrimp.” The proprietary product story allowed them to enter leading-edge foodservice locations like Google’s campus.

New Wave Foods is an example of how a challenger brand can use new technologies, processes and ingredients to build a breakthrough product story that creates a moat even at start-up stage. Their early commitment to identifying, sourcing and processing the specific algae to recreate shrimp’s color, taste and texture will give them a significant head start as other brands start to bring plant-based trends to seafood.

Kylie Cosmetics

Cosmetics

Kylie Jenner is shaking up the beauty industry with the launch of her Kylie Cosmetics line. After earning $420MM in sales after only 18 months, Kylie Cosmetics is projected to hit $1B in total sales by 2022, just 7 years after launch. (By comparison, it took Lancôme 80 years to do the same.)While celebrity has always been a way to create an edge, today’s celebrities are using their social media reach to market directly to fans, further leveraging their fame to build the brands that bear their names. Jenner uses her social media pages (she has over 115 million Instagram followers!) to connect consumers with her brand. The instant consumer pull from Millennials and Gen Z creates a moat that is difficult for others to emulate.

Vital Proteins

Supplements

Vital Proteins has become a leading brand in the collagen space by using digital marketing and partnerships with “endorsers” from values-based groups. For example, the brand’s clean ingredient list won it “Whole30-approval.” (Whole30 is an increasingly popular eating plan focused on whole, unprocessed foods.) The brand has roughly tripled in sales the past three years, using these values-based endorsements to build a moat in the highly competitive supplement space.

From the Seal of Good Housekeeping to celebrity chef recommendations, brand endorsements have been around forever. What has changed is the source of these endorsements and their ability to act as challenger brand moats that help consumers navigate a sea of confusing food choices.

Four Sigmatic

Mushroom-based Drinks

Although “adaptogens” have become an industry buzzword over the past few years, they remain a mystery to most consumers. Adaptogens, or medicinal mushrooms, provide functional benefits like sleep aid and stress management – and Four Sigmatic is bringing them to the mainstream market. To do so, the brand makes it easy to understand and access mushrooms’ benefits. Their packaging pairs unfamiliar mushroom types (“reishi”) with familiar benefits (“chill”), and the products are powders that are simply mixed into water.

While others may jump on the bandwagon (Starbucks just announced an adaptogen latte), Four Sigmatic has made the ingredient synonymous with its brand by making an unfamiliar ingredient widely accessible. The brand continues to launch new products and geographies.

Oatly

Dairy Milk Alternative

Oatly, an oat-based milk free from dairy, soy, GMOs, gluten, or nuts, entered the U.S. market by eschewing mainstream retail and going directly to coffee shops. In doing so, they won over influential baristas and leading-edge coffee enthusiasts. This influencer channel continues to be a moat for Oatly to reach new consumers and generate demand and momentum to fuel its entry into mainstream retail and into new geographies.

Perfect Bar

Protein Bar

Years ago, Perfect Bar disrupted the bars market by targeting placement in refrigerated spaces, before a category for fresh bars even existed. This unique location not only harnesses the freshness halo of the refrigerated case, but also insulates the brand from the rest of the crowded ambient bar category.

In-store location is still the #1 medium for building brands in most categories. Perfect Bar demonstrates the moat-building power of a distinct location that communicates, educates and reaches new shoppers.

 

Bevi

Healthy Beverage Dispensers

Bevi is unique on this list in that it’s not a packaged good. In fact, Bevi has forsaken packaging altogether. This Boston-based company places digital healthy beverage dispensers in offices around the U.S., providing employees with healthy, tasty beverages that generate less waste than traditional canned or bottled options. The machines also track consumption, allowing Bevi to proactively restock machines and build a database of consumption insights. The brand says it has reduced office beverage costs by 50%, and Bevi itself posted 1000% revenue growth in 2016.

Bevi’s “moat” comes from the way in which it developed a complete solution model with distributors to help with the sale, delivery and maintenance of machines to offices.

Urban Remedy

Fresh RTE Meals & Snacks

Urban Remedy is bringing consumers ready-to-eat fresh meals and snacks whenever, wherever. Their omni-channel model, which spans home delivery, owned retail storefronts and branded kiosks inside of other forward-looking retailers, allows them to win a greater share of in-home and out of home occasions. The proof? Urban Remedy has experienced 100% growth over the past two years.

The company tracks data from owned points of sale, using the insights to tailor its assortment in real time (a kiosk’s assortment on a given day is determined by analysis of yesterday’s sales). Furthermore, Urban Remedy uses kiosks and branded stores to incubate and identify the 2-3 SKUs that are worthy of being rolled out to larger accounts like Costco. This “always-on insight strategy” provides a better chance of success when launching new products in mainstream retail channels – and creates a moat to stave off other brands considering entering the fresh packaged space.

10 moats that create an edge within the challenger brand model:

1. Supply chain as consumer benefit
2. Raise the bar on production standards
3. Proprietary product story
4. Commercialized social reach
5. Values-based endorsements

6. First mover with a unique ingredient
7. Influencer channels
8. Stand-out in-store location
9. Complete solution model
10. Always on insight strategy

As always, we want to hear from you! If you’d like more information on any of our challenger brand studies, or want to share a brand of your own, please reach out at info@seuratgroup.com.

Check out our previous challenger brand studies here, here, and here.

Sources:

Bright Farms

  1. https://www.brightfarms.com/app/themes/brightfarms/assets/pdf/Series%20D%20Press%20Release%20-%206.28.18%20FINAL.pdf
  2. https://www.inc.com/profile/brightfarms
  3. https://www.inc.com/magazine/201709/coeli-carr/2017-inc5000-brightfarms.html

Tony’s Chocolonely

  1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/oracle/2018/06/05/tonys-chocolonely-delivers-on-fair-trade-high-growth-virtues/#739343d91223
  2. https://www.confectionerynews.com/Article/2017/08/31/Tony-s-Chocolonely-targets-US-mainstream-retail-after-going-national
  3. https://tonyschocolonely.com/us/en/our-story/annual-fair-report/map

New Wave Foods

  1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpellmanrowland/2017/03/20/female-leaders-food/#54045dd12184
  2. https://www.newwavefoods.com/about-us
  3. https://www.livekindly.co/vegan-shrimp-set-to-be-the-new-wave-in-ethical-seafood/

Kylie Cosmetics

  1. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/14/how-kylie-jenner-turned-kylie-cosmetics-into-a-420-million-empire.html
  2. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesdigitalcovers/2018/07/11/how-20-year-old-kylie-jenner-built-a-900-million-fortune-in-less-than-3-years/
  3. https://www.elle.com/beauty/makeup-skin-care/news/a47259/kylie-jenner-kylie-cosmetics-earnings-billion-dollar-projectory-wwd/

Vital Proteins

  1. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/vital-proteins-secures-19-million-investment-from-cavu-venture-partners-to-push-collagen-nutrition-into-the-mainstream-300547801.html
  2. https://whole30.com/2016/09/vital-proteins-faq/

Four Sigmatic

  1. https://www.fastcompany.com/40511575/the-shroom-boom-will-trendy-medicinal-mushrooms-go-mainstream-in-2018
  2. https://uhp.com.au/blog/how-four-sigmatic-is-popularising-functional-mushroom-drinks/

Perfect Bar

  1. https://perfectbar.com/2018/05/08/perfect-bar-increases-wholesale-business/
  2. https://perfectbar.com/2017/11/21/entrepreneur-day-perfect-bar/

Bevi

  1. https://www.xconomy.com/boston/2017/07/13/bevi-slurps-16-5m-to-bring-smart-water-cooler-to-more-offices/
  2. https://www.bevi.co/blog/smart-beverage-platform-bevi-raises-16-5m-series-b-make-disposable-bottles-obsolete/

Urban Remedy

  1. https://www.nosh.com/news/2018/urban-remedy-plans-escape-kiosk-california
  2. https://urbanremedy.com/locations/

Oalty

  1. https://www.inc.com/betsy-mikel/this-439-cult-swedish-drink-is-poised-to-disrupt-a-16-billion-industry.html
Innovation at the Moment of Truth

Innovation at the Moment of Truth

Innovation at the Moment of Truth

Innovation at the Moment of Truth

Introduction

Today’s Consumer Packaged Goods manufacturers face a challenging environment with overall industry growth forecast to be a modest 2.0-2.5% for 2018. While price increases have historically been a reliable growth lever, it has become increasingly difficult to realize price growth even when increased input costs justify a change.

The forces of value conscious shoppers, radical price transparency enabled by omnichannel commerce, and intensifying retailer competition have merged to reduce pricing power across the market.

Within this context, innovation remains an imperative for manufacturers to drive demand and realize higher prices. While most organizations focus on product innovation as the primary growth pathway, we at the Seurat Group see few manufacturers actively use packaging as a demand and value driver for their portfolio.

We believe package innovation is an under-utilized lever that brands can use to access incremental demand pools and realize higher price points among consumers, shoppers and customers.

Outside-In Package and Pricing Innovation

Historically, manufacturers have taken an inside-out approach to innovation and pricing decisions – both inside their category and inside the package. Within a category, revenue teams often lean on syndicated data to evaluate pricing within their category and brand portfolio to find the “optimal” price point.

Inside the package, manufacturers lean in on R&D teams to develop products that deliver enhanced benefits to justify higher price points – e.g., organic or clean label offerings.

While these steps are important, focusing solely on ‘inside’ dimensions limits opportunities to increase consumer share of stomach/ usage or to drive overall value growth.

Expanding to include an exhaustive ‘outside’ view elevates the importance of consumer, shopper and customer need spaces, and reveals opportunities for brands to meet new needs through enhanced benefits at higher price points.

Looking Outside-In
We have identified four best practices to unlock incremental growth opportunities for brand portfolios through packaging innovation and price architecture optimization:
Too often brands define their competitive set as products within their physical category at retail. Unfortunately, this approach is disconnected from how decisions are made along the consumer journey and misses choices being made among a broader set of products. Narrowly defining the competitive set misses opportunities to capitalize on whitespaces that may exist in adjacent categories. For example, broadening the frame of reference from ‘Pretzels’ (~$1 billion in sales) to ‘Total Salty Snacks’ (~$28 billion in sales) unlocks opportunities for a brand to compete for incremental demand and dollars.

Within a broader frame of reference it is critical to build solutions for consumers grounded in a deep understanding of the needs that drive product selection. Traditional price and package optimization often has a narrow focus on identifying gaps within a category’s current range of package sizes and prices.

However, this often limits growth to stealing share from within the category or subsidizing sales from a brand’s current product range. Re-orienting to start with broader consumer needs allows for brands to identify incremental demand spaces that are under-served and utilize package innovation to access incremental profit pools.

For example, understanding that a consumer is looking for an interesting, on-the-go snack to alleviate boredom on their commute, rather than a small bag of chips, establishes a whole new foundation to inspire package innovation.

Defining a unique role for each product at the customer level – and the specific needs of shoppers in those customers – are key inputs into package innovation and pricing. The result is an omnichannel product portfolio that delights customers and shoppers and is naturally differentiated across points of distribution.

As online retailers shepherd in the age of Radical Price Transparency (see our growthpaper ‘Radical Price Transparency’), manufacturers increasingly need ways to manage cross channel price matching. Channel specific package innovation provides the dual benefit of better meeting customer needs and minimizing pricing conflicts.

A product’s packaging plays a key role in addressing expanded consumer, customer and shopper needs. In order to access incremental demand spaces, innovation must incorporate package design elements required to win occasions from competitive products.

Vying for a quick-fuel, on-the-go occasion highlights that a package must have portable, quick to eat, no mess (e.g., one handed) elements in order to win a consumer’s dollars. In order to be successful, package innovation needs the same focus, investment and attention as product innovation.

Conclusion

As manufacturers seek ways to increase growth in a low-growth environment, package and price innovation can unlock significant incremental profit pools for new and existing brands. Looking “Outside-In” and utilizing the four best practices outlined above provides the foundation for brands to develop concepts that connect to incremental demand spaces and price points.

The Seurat Group helps clients look “Outside-In” to uncover incremental brand growth opportunities through package innovation and pricing. Please contact us directly at info@seuratgroup.com with any comments or questions. We welcome your input.

Trade Promotion In Turmoil

Trade Promotion In Turmoil

Trade Promotion In Turmoil

Trade Promotion In Turmoil

Trade Promotion in Turmoil

Trade promotion continues to increase as manufacturers prop up short-term performance, fend off emerging competitors, and appeal to retailers’ demands to meet their category objectives.

Today, it is not uncommon for food and beverage manufacturers to have trade spending as a percent of sales climb above 25%. At these levels, trade spending can jeopardize brand equity and quickly commoditize categories.

The average trade event lift is down as the Ad vehicle becomes less effective, display less prominent; more retailers shift to a hybrid/EDLP strategy, and overlapping competitors promote during the same week.

The overall impact is return on trade investment is declining as every dollar invested in trade becomes
less efficient.

Trade spending is increasing at a rate faster than sales for many brands, creating a situation that must be addressed by brand owners in order to meet increasing profit targets.

Retailers are asking for greater manufacturer investment as they expand demand generation efforts through social and digital marketing vehicles to reach changing consumers through their preferred means of communication.

Left unchecked, trade spending ROI is forecasted to continue its decline due to key macro trends facing the Consumer Packaged Goods industry:

 

 

Spending power is unchanged for the majority of Americans as real wages remain flat, despite improving employment numbers.

Additionally, the lessons of the ‘Great Recession’ have left a lasting focus on value for consumers across the income spectrum. 

 

 

Retailers across the market, from Dollar General to Whole Foods, need to be sharp on value and are resisting attempts by manufacturers to increase margin in the form of higher prices or lower trade investment.

Adjustments to trade spending are particularly difficult since manufacturer trade investment is the one item that swings retailers from a loss to profitability.

 

New challenger brands are driving growth across categories and are receiving favorable treatment by retailers desperate for topline growth.

Challengers come in many forms, including those offering big brand benefits for lower prices, and retailers’ own Private Label.

 

 

Increasing global demand for commodities, combined with disruption in the agricultural sector, is driving increased input costs for many products.

Manufacturers struggle to pass along cost increases through higher prices, and when implemented, these increases are often dialed back through increased trade investment.

Macro Trends Will Have Impact

These macro trends will impact all manufacturers that are not agile in adjusting how their trade funds are managed, integrated into the marketing plan, and deployed at retail.

As the #1 marketing lever to drive desired brand and category purchasing behaviors among shoppers, adjusting with the times is critical to meet performance goals.

A change in approach is particularly timely for brands in categories where organic topline growth is difficult to achieve. While topline growth may be slowing, the expectations of Wall Street are not changing, and increasing profit delivery is a must for managers.

Fortunately, trade spending is a lever that has an immediate impact on the P&L and it should be optimized to achieve financial and marketing objectives.

Best Practices

We recommended five best practices to counter the drag of macro forces and both increase the financial return on trade investment and ensure trade investment is strategically aligned with brand goals:

 

Examine trade program impact on shopper behavior in order to create a ‘common language’ to drive alignment between marketing strategy and trade strategy.

Key enablers of this practice are granular, shopper behavior insights at the point of purchase that serve as the ‘planning currency’ between sales and marketing.

Managers need to examine trade performance using more than volume and spending. A true profit view is critical for optimizing trade investment to have the greatest impact on the P&L.

A key enabler is identification of item level profitability and trade spending at the point of execution.

Shoppers are influenced by a wide variety of inter-related factors when making a product choice in store. These factors extend well beyond a ‘syndicated view’ of the store and include everything from shopper marketing programs to the way price messages are communicated at shelf (e.g.,“Save $1.00” vs. “$2.99”).

Manufacturers seeking to gain an edge over competition and increase the efficiency of spending need to incorporate all of these factors into trade analysis and identify the contribution of each factor in driving demand.

Optimizing trade based on year-over-year adjustments or event-by-event, post promotion analysis is no longer an option in a world where average event performance is decreasing.

Manufacturers need to widen their analytical approach to include all of the events/factors in their ‘universe’ in order to identify winning factors that can be more broadly exploited across the business along with NEW programs to bring to market.

Plan beyond a ‘Trade Program’ by taking a total demand generation approach. Integrate leading shopper marketing strategies, investment, and programming into a total customer demand plan for retail partners.

Conclusion

We see manufacturers who take a structured approach and utilize the five best practices above realize a 10X return on the investment required to conduct analysis and implement a change in strategy. In addition to its size and importance, optimizing trade programs enables manufacturers to have an immediate, positive impact on the P&L to achieve planning targets.

The Seurat Group’s TradeCatalyst™ approach is a flexible trade optimization framework that integrates a variety of data sources and combines trade analytics with deep shopper, competitor, and retailer insight to identify the optimal, integrated trade strategy. The approach helps manufacturers better utilize trade as a marketing tool and increase the return on every dollar invested in trade programs.

Contact the Seurat Group to learn more about ways to optimize trade promotion in order to increase sales and profit delivery: info@seuratgroup.com

Social Communities

Social Communities

Social Communities

Social Communities

3 Reasons Why They’re the Best New Research Method
Introduction

Social communities are market research’s best-kept secret. They allow researchers to tap into natural avenues for communication where people are comfortable: social media.

As a result, consumers are incredibly engaged and eager to offer up rich insight. In a world where emerging CPG
companies are disrupting the industry with their ability to hit

the pavement, learn from consumers quickly, and react strategically, social communities are invaluable.

They give big companies the opportunity to be agile. Not sold yet? Great, we’re going to explore three big reasons why they’re the best new research methodology you’ve never heard of:

Social communities are powerful because they are already ingrained in consumers’ lives (think: Twitter, Facebook, Instagram). They’re also painless for participants (unlike traditional communities which require significant behavioral change).

We’ve heard time and time again how much consumers enjoy participating to the point where they are sad to see their community end. Traditional research methods like focus groups, in-home ethnographies, and in-store research, on the other hand, are more arduous for consumers because they require a substantial time commitment (usually in the middle of the day) and take place in artificial environments.

These methods help marketers understand general usage and shopping patterns, but they do not provide the same sense of authentic interaction as social communities. They are planned interviews, no matter how much you emphasize that they should reflect consumers’ “typical behaviors.”

Social communities yield insights that ultimately drive innovation, inform consumer messaging, and help refine shopper strategy.

Take a fictional case of a toothpaste manufacturer, for example. In our scenario, the toothpaste manufacturer leverages social communities to generate a breadth of insights related to the areas above (innovation, consumer messaging, and shopper strategy.) The company’s marketers are able to pick out the best insights and use them as the foundation for action.

Example: Toothpaste Manufacturer

You might be wondering: “If social communities are so great, why don’t we hear more about them in CPG?” The big reason is that they are labor intensive. They take a lot of time to facilitate, require a flexible research plan, and often necessitate extra buy-in from key stakeholders.

Despite the added effort, however, researchers who go the extra mile LOVE social communities because they elevate their qualitative insights. If you are hungering to foster an authentic connection with consumers and generate new, rich insights, you should consider them too.

Researchers LOVE social communities…and you will too!

“At the beginning, I thought ‘boy, this is going to be a long process.’ Now all I’m thinking about is how worth it communities are.”

“I never thought we could get such great data from social media.”

“This is truly a frontier in market research. In all my time in Insights, I’ve not seen qualitative learning this robust.”

To learn more about Social Communities, please contact us at info@seuratgroup.com

Predicting The Future In CPG

Predicting The Future In CPG

Predicting The Future In CPG

Predicting The Future In CPG

“An organization that doesn’t leverage its data in [a predictive] way is like a person with a photographic memory who never bothers to think.” – Eric Siegel, Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die

The Power of Predictive

Predictive analytics is as close as an organization can get to peering into a crystal ball. It is the answer to the billion dollar question: “what is going to happen?”

From projecting the effectiveness of door-to-door campaigning during the 2012 presidential election to forecasting the number of high-risk patients for healthcare providers in the US, predictive analytics provides a distinct competitive advantage to those willing to invest. The problem is that few in CPG have realized this potential.

Definition:
Predictive Analytics: The logical answer to the “what is likely to happen?” question. It is the practice of analyzing current and historical data to logically forecast future outcomes, trends, and behavior patterns.

Application: 
Predictive analytics enables companies to transform from reactive followers to proactive leaders.

Realizing the Predictive Potential

CPG retailers and manufacturers have mastered the art of descriptive historical analysis, which is valuable in its own right – for maximizing performance, reducing inefficiencies, and understanding how to better deliver against consumer and shopper needs.

Delivering against yesterday’s needs, however, fails to help these companies win in an ever-changing “world of tomorrow.” It skips the most important step in a powerful three-pronged approach1 to data analysis: prediction.

Predictive analytics has exploded across industries this decade. In fact, the use of predictive analytics more than tripled during the five years following the end of the recession, becoming a key strategy for unlocking growth.

Amazon is one company famous for its investment in predictive analytics, most notably to power its recommendation engine. Amazon’s predictive model is so effective that sales from recommendations account for more than 1/3 of total revenues.

The company is now turning its attention to a new predictive application: an anticipatory shipping model that cuts delivery times by shipping products to consumers, or in their direction, before they order them – all based on purchase predictions.

Spice manufacturer McCormick has also reaped the benefits of predictive analytics through its personalized recipe recommendation engine, FlavorPrint.

FlavorPrint initially gauges consumer taste preferences using a 20-question online quiz, and continually refines profiles by analyzing rated recipes and variables like weekday versus weekend patterns. It predicts which recipe recommendations consumers are likely to choose and when they are likely to choose them.

Thanks to predictive analytics, McCormick has captured a valuable competitive advantage in the digital engagement space. The company boasts 6 times more pages per visit to its website and an average website stay of 7 minutes5 – a number unheard of for most manufacturer websites.

It is programs like this that have made McCormick a proactive leader in CPG, contributing to the company nearly doubling its stock price over the past 5 years.6 There is a clear opportunity for other manufacturers to follow suit and invest in predictive analytics so that they too can transform from reactive followers to proactive leaders.

Applying Predictive Analytics in CPG

It’s clear that predictive analytics is a burgeoning game changer in CPG – the cornerstone capability for unlocking future growth.

Through years of helping clients leverage predictive analytics, we have identified 4 valuable applications across the industry:

Applications

2015 Examples

By leveraging predictive analytics to identify future consumer trends, a leading regional grocer optimized its portfolio of 20+ private brands down to 6 platforms well-aligned to current and future shopper need states.

End result: a strategic portfolio of brands that played well across all shopper segments.

The Clorox Company introduced a cold & flu Twitter conversation tracker that predicts flu incidence throughout the year based on volume of social engagement.

With this capability, Clorox can pinpoint peak flu season more effectively, and thus market cleaning products when and where consumers need them most.

A mid-sized manufacturer used predictive trigger analysis to identify factors that lead to the highest category spending.

This future-looking insight provided a more robust fact base beyond the usual category management metrics, and ultimately helped the company persuade retail partners to adopt its proposed guidelines – gaining share of shelf that exceeded share of sales.

A leading produce manufacturer built its long-term strategy based on forecasted purchase behavior. Using predictive analytics, it developed a future-looking decision hierarchy (PDH) that helped orient the business around a category-view of the behaviors predicted to unlock the greatest volume.

Conclusion

Tomorrow’s leaders will adopt predictive analytics as part of their foundational insight capabilities. It will take patience, careful planning, and a comprehensive strategic plan.

Despite these extra efforts, retailers and manufacturers that take strides to master the power of prediction will no longer act as passive followers, but rather proactive leaders capable of dictating the future. Companies that invest in predictive analytics will stay ahead of trends and drive growth, entering category whitespace before competitors get the chance to identify the same opportunities. They will be tomorrow’s leaders.

For more information on how predictive analytics can impact your business, contact the Seurat Group (info@seuratgroup.com).